MACRO
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German July retail sales fell sharply, missing forecasts, while Eurozone August inflation rose to 3.3%, the highest in three years. Core CPI slightly below expectations. Unemployment edged up to 6.4%.
macro · Impact 20US API gasoline stock change +0.3M barrels, prior -3.2M.
macro · Impact 30US 52-week bill auction: bid-to-cover 3.61, high yield 3.980%.
macro · Impact 40US ISM manufacturing employment index misses expectations, falls to 51.2 in August.
macro · Impact 20Canadian Manufacturing PMI falls to 53.0 in August from 53.5.
macro · Impact 20The German 5-year Bobl auction recorded a bid-to-cover ratio of 1.6, up from 1.5 at the previous auction. No forecast was available. The slight increase suggests marginally stronger demand for the German government bond.
macro · Impact 20Italian preliminary HICP year-on-year for August came in at 3.2%, missing the 3.4% consensus and accelerating from the prior 2.9%. The below-forecast print adds to evidence of easing eurozone inflation, following German CPI data that also missed expectations. The flash estimate is subject to revision. Limited direct impact on US equities, but the data supports a dovish ECB narrative.
macro · Impact 20Italian unemployment rate for August was 5.8%, matching the revised prior month but above the 5.6% consensus. The previous reading was revised up from 5.7%. Limited US equity read-through.
macro · Impact 20UK mortgage approvals, lending miss forecasts; M4 money supply contracts.
macro · Impact 10BOE consumer credit rises to 2.006B in July, beats 1.7B forecast.
macro · Impact 25The final Eurozone manufacturing PMI for August came in at 52.7, slightly below the flash estimate of 52.8. The reading confirms the sector remains in expansion but at a marginally slower pace than initially reported. French and Spanish PMIs were weaker, while Swiss PMI beat expectations.
macro · Impact 20The August print of 51.1 is a miss versus the 51.5 consensus and flat versus the prior 51.5. Still in expansion territory, but the miss signals a softer pace of growth in French factory activity.
macro · Impact 20Swiss manufacturing PMI rises to 57.1 in August, beats 54 forecast.
macro · Impact 20Spanish manufacturing PMI falls to 49.5 in August, misses 50.5 forecast.
macro · Impact 15Swiss retail sales YoY for July came in at 2.3%, up from 1.5% previously. No forecast was available. The print suggests improving consumer demand in the Swiss economy. The data is from an unverified third-party source.
macro · Impact 40UK Nationwide house price YoY actual 1.6%, forecast 2.1%, previous 1.8%.
macro · Impact 30Japan's Consumer Confidence index came in at 35.5 for August, topping the 35.3 consensus estimate and rising from 34.9 in July. The data points to a slow but steady improvement in household sentiment, which may support domestic consumption. The yen and Nikkei showed limited immediate reaction.
macro · Impact 40Chinese manufacturing PMI rises to 51.5 in August, beats forecast.
macro · Impact 20Australian building approvals dropped 3.6% in July, beating the -5% consensus forecast but reversing from a 7.2% gain in the prior period. The data suggests housing sector momentum is fading after a strong June. The release is unverified and comes from a third-party aggregator.
macro · Impact 40South Korea's preliminary export growth for August came in at 68.7% year-over-year, above the 63% consensus estimate and accelerating from 63.0% in the prior period.
macro · Impact 10Australian Manufacturing PMI final holds at 52.0 in August.
macro · Impact 20The bid-to-cover ratio for the US 3-month Treasury bill auction came in at 2.77, down from 3.080 at the prior auction. No forecast was available. The decline suggests softer demand at the short end of the curve.
macro · Impact 40German CPI below forecast in August; Japan retail sales beat, output misses.
macro · Impact 40Bavaria's CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month in August, slowing from 0.6% in July. No consensus forecast was available. The state-level print often precedes the national German CPI release and may signal easing monthly inflation pressure.
macro · Impact 10Spanish current account surplus widens to 2.414B from 1.84B.
macro · Impact 30Japan July housing starts rose 8.2% YoY, above the 7.6% consensus but down from 18.6% in June. The beat is marginal; the deceleration is the main signal. Housing starts are a leading indicator for construction and broader economic momentum. The prior month's spike appears to be fading.
macro · Impact 30China August Composite PMI 49.5, Non-Manufacturing PMI 49.0.
macro · Impact 30Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI rises to 49.8 in August, above forecast.
macro · Impact 20Australian business inventories came in at -0.2% versus a 0.5% consensus estimate, down from a prior 0.5% reading. The miss points to softer demand conditions in the Australian economy.
macro · Impact 40MOC imbalance shows net buying across S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow 30, and Mag 7.
macro · Impact 20Baker Hughes weekly data shows total US rig count steady at 588. Gas rigs increased by 5 to 132; oil rigs decreased by 5 to 447.
macro · Impact 10Canadian budget balance swings to surplus of C$0.99B.
macro · Impact 30The final August reading of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index came in at 51.7, above the 51.0 forecast and the preliminary 51.0. The 1-year inflation expectation fell to 4.0% from 4.3%.
macro · Impact 70The preliminary benchmark revision to US payrolls came in at -79K, well below the 183K consensus and following the prior -911K revision. The data implies a net downward adjustment to previously reported employment levels, though less severe than the prior revision. Market reaction pending official BLS confirmation.
macro · Impact 20The final August reading for the University of Michigan consumer expectations index came in at 51.5, slightly above the 51.4 consensus forecast and up from the prior 50.6. The data is from an unverified third-party claim.
macro · Impact 75The Chicago Business Barometer fell to 47.1 from 57.6 in July, missing the 57.9 consensus by a wide margin. The reading signals contraction in the region's manufacturing activity. The data comes from an unverified third-party source.
macro · Impact 20MOO imbalance shows net buying in S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow 30; Mag 7 net selling.
macro · Impact 40Canada's economy grew at a 3.3% annualized rate in Q2, rebounding from a revised 0.3% in Q1. Monthly GDP rose 0.3% in June, but the advanced estimate for July showed no growth.
macro · Impact 30Canadian GDP grew 0.8% quarter-over-quarter in Q2, rebounding from a flat prior quarter. No forecast was available.
macro · Impact 20Italian consumer confidence for August printed at 94.5, a marginal miss versus the 94.6 forecast but above the prior 94.2. The indicator remains in a narrow range, suggesting stable but subdued household sentiment in the eurozone's third-largest economy.
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