A third-party analysis previews Friday's August CPI report as a pivotal input for the Fed's September rate decision. Consensus sees headline CPI rising 0.4% MoM (energy-driven) and core CPI at 0.2% MoM. The composition – shelter, services, core PCE read-through – may matter more than the headline. Market pricing implies ~15.5bp of tightening for next week's FOMC.
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