JPMorgan maps Fed day scenarios: stocks could swing 2%

JPMorgan published a scenario analysis for today's Fed decision, estimating the S&P 500 could swing up to 2% depending on the guidance delivered alongside the expected 25bp hike. A minimal-guidance hike could add 0.25%-0.75%, while a stronger inflation-fighting signal could push gains to 0.5%-1%. A surprise hold would likely send stocks down 1.25%-1.75% as long-term yields rise. The biggest risk is guidance implying rates must stay 'materially higher', which could trigger a 1%-2% decline and potentially end the rally.