RHB economists say a potential MSCI downgrade of Indonesia to standalone market status could slow 2027 growth to 4.5% in a stress scenario, from a 5.1% baseline, as weaker sentiment hits foreign investment and capital spending. Continued foreign selling could pressure the rupiah and bonds, raising borrowing costs. Bank Indonesia may hold rates at 6.00% through 2027 after an expected 4Q hike, with further tightening possible if currency pressures persist.
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