U.S. Tariff Rate Could Rise to 15% Under Divided Government, PGIM Says

PGIM chief US economist Robert Sockin says a divided government after midterms lifts probability of executive actions lifting tariff rates from ~10% to ~15%, maintaining inflationary impulse. PGIM sees Fed hiking 100 bps, with next increase in December. It lowers overheating probability to 40% from 50%, raises recession probability to ~25%.