- Fed's next rate decision is Dec. 9.
- Market pricing: 88% chance of 25bp hike, 12% chance of 50bp hike (LSEG).
Macquarie says baseline is a 25bp hike on Dec. 9, but a government shutdown, oil price decline, or AI-led stock sell-off could still derail the move. Market pricing shows 88% probability of a 25bp hike.
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